Archive for the 'monetary policy' Category

25
Jul

Bill Bonner Throws Out A Shocking Bailout number

From Wednesday’s Daily Reckoning;

We learned that the feds have put up an amount equal to more than 150% to GDP to bailing out Wall Street: $23.7 trillion.

10
Jul

Friday Music Gets Economical!

Motley look, great band. Canada wins again!

Motley look, great band. Canada wins again!

The Dears Money Babies on YouTube

I don’t usually look to musicians for economic illumination

- (except maybe blues musicians - this IS a Depression, after all, and blues IS Depression Music) -

…but I just LOVE The Dears’ “Money Babies”;

Our money is elastic. Our money is elastic.

Gotta get milk for the baby and our money is elastic.

Decapitative laughter is keeping us alive.

Cavalcades of losers, losing their minds.

Hoping for disaster. Settin’ off alarms.

Amid all of the deranged. Amid all the charmed.

Do you remember that time when we thought we were gonna die?

Well, baby nothing much has changed.

And yet they haven’t been the same since at all.

Our money is elastic. Our money is elastic.

Gotta get milk for the baby. Gotta get milk for the baby.

(Honorable Mention - not economic, but also Canadian - Hey Rosetta - “Red Heart”)

Oh, and - Holy Shit! - The Hold Steady - “Constructive Summer” - (Joe and I can relate to this)

Raise a toast to St. Joe Strummer / I think he might have been our only decent teacher / getting older makes it harder to remember / we are our only saviors

30
Jun

Wake Up Call - The Movie

I blame Bob Murphy for this. Ignore the simple, inadequate theories of the mechanics (but NOT the politics) of the WTC collapses, and pay attention to the rest - cuts from “Zeitgeist”, “Loose Change”, “Freedom To Fascism”, and more, intercut with Alex Jones, John Taylor Gatto, and David Icke explaining in detail how we are constantly being manipulated to do the bidding of the elites. It’s fascinating, powerful, and, despite the odds, it works.  Check out Joh Nada’s “Wake Up Call”.

14
May

The Beginning Of The End Of The Dollar

As we go up, we go down

As we go up, we go down

Lew Rockwell pointed out that in this article for Forbes, NYU professor Tom Cooley inadvertently telegraphs the probable trajectory of the final collapse of the Fed, which, by the way, he is blaming in advance on Ron Paul;

“…since September 2008 it has expanded its balance sheet dramatically from roughly $900 billion to over $2 trillion, as of May 6…The current plan is to continue to expand the balance sheet with… securities backed by credit card debt, auto loans, student loans, small-business loans and real estate loans…The presence of these assets on the balance sheet in such quantities creates another problem for the Fed that exposes it to intervention. First, these huge unborrowed reserves make some observers nervous about inflation, even though there is no evidence of it right now.”

No evidence? Look at gold, oil, and the stock market. Look at foreclosure figures, Or, better, look at the items in your grocery basket - prices are holding, but portions are shrinking and sales are tougher to come by.

“But if the Fed has to reduce the assets on its balance sheet to forestall an inflation threat it could be very disruptive to credit markets. Their complicated positions could be hard to unwind. If the assets they bought were liquid, the Fed wouldn’t have been buying them in the first place. This means it may be difficult to get the cash out of the economy before it is too late.”

It’s ALREADY too late. But extinguishing those excess reserves was never in the plan anyway. Frank Shostak had an interesting technical analysis that bolsters my case;

“It is tempting to suggest that perhaps this visible rebound since February could be the beginning of a new bull market. An important factor behind this strong bounce is massive monetary pumping by the Fed that has contributed to a large increase in monetary liquidity. We suggest that, while the Fed can create plenty of monetary liquidity, it cannot make the underlying real fundamentals better. If anything, the Fed’s policies can only make the fundamentals much worse.”

14
Feb

The Next Bubble - Government Bonds

Which One Goes Next?

Which One Goes Next?

There seem to be a couple of likely candidates for the next bubble to pop, among them commercial real estate, with its heavy dependence on (collapsing) retail sales, and government bonds, which are are intimately tied to (ballooning)  government infrastructure spending.

The people I have talked to about commercial real estate (owners / investors) seem split on whether / when the commercial realty bubble will pop, or whether it will be a slow outgas followed by gradual recovery.

In contrast, no one  that I have heard or conversed with is optimistic about government bonds. Talking to a municipal bond trader the other day, I remarked ” the infrastructure spending in the proposed stimulus has got to be good news for your business, right?” He replied to the effect that no, most people in the bond business are very concerned that there is in actuality a growing bubble in government debt, which the stimulus bill has every chance of making much worse.

So, how do you short government bonds again?

(Image from philadelphia reflections, a monetarist’s blog, unfortunately)

02
Feb

We Will Miss George W Bush. Seriously.

Please, We Should Thank You.

Please, We Should Thank You.

OK, it’s time to come clean. We at LibertyGuys, and many, many libertarians, minarchists, anarchists, war opponents, and other free-thinkers, while relieved that he can finally do no more direct harm to the entire globe on a whim, secretly miss George W. Bush already. Because, you see, deep down in our heart of hearts, we were really, really grateful for his presidency.

What I mean is this. We opposed all the wars, the spying on Americans, the torture, the crony capitalism, the transparent use of the entire Imperial military apparatus for the benefit of connected flunkies, then, finally, the direct transfer of all of our financial futures to his friends on Wall Street, with more than 80% of the people opposed. All of it.

We opposed all the spending, the creation of vast new entitlements, the bailouts for all of the evil f**ks on Wall Street, K Street, and Detroit.  In short, we opposed nearly everything the man stands for or did. But deep down, after every bad thing he did, a little part of us said a small “amen”.

Sure, it was nice to have something to agree with our liberal friends on, the wars, the imperialism, the torture, Katrina, etc. Any and all of those things was reason enough to hate him. But it wasn’t the reason we love him.

The thing, the thing we very much love about George W. Bush is the way he made the case against statism. Every thing the man did included all of the classic statist ingredients; war, demonization of the other (Muslims), socialism, protectionism, polarization and politicization of every sphere, cronyism, and corporatism, covered with a sauce of greed and venality, and served up with a double helping of rank incompetence.

The War on Iraq, the destruction of civilization in Afghanistan, the Katrina disaster, the revelations of massive illegal wiretapping , any one of these would have destroyed a lesser demon, say a Richard Nixon, or a Lyndon Johnson. But not our man George. He plagued us, completely intact, to the very end. Even the collapse of our entire system of corporatism and imperial finance did not unhorse this cowboy. His was a singular reign.

Perversely, this is why we are afraid of the manifestly competent politician who replaced him, the Obamessiah. Our worst fear, all us freedom-loving types who have awakened to the government’s war on civilization, that the man may actually place people of intelligence, merit, and skill in those powerful positions available to his patronage is being realized.

We are alarmed that he has filled his staffs with brilliant, competent idealogues. We might, quite understandably be terrified, absolutely terrified, that Obama, the unitary leader of the biggest, richest, most powerful state ever to exist, might make the trains run on time. Except, we know he can’t.

Oh he will do everything his fans and supporters expect of him. He will mouth all the right platitudes, he will speak “directly” to the people, his armies of PR flacks and press dupesters will dutifully report on his triumphs, while sweeping his failures under a rug. It has been, and will be a brilliant performance.

And none of it will make any difference. The financial crisis is gearing up to become a fiscal and monetary tsunami, one that will sweep away all before it. They, those bright, motivated bureaucrats won’t know what hit them.

But they will enjoy, at least for a while the completely undeserved trust and goodwill of many of the people, even as we all march into the depths of it.

(photo from ratemyeverything.com)

07
Jan

The Economic Collapse, Mythbusters Version

We love Discovery Channel’s “Mythbusters“. These guys are given salaries, staff, resources, and a weekly TV show to do the kind of stuff we used to get in trouble for doing when we were kids. It’s BOSS.

A while back they did a unique stunt in a bid to create an internet viral video like these goofballs did with candy and 2-liter bottles of soda. They bubbled methane gas into a bucket of soapy water to create a towering column of foam, which they then ignited, causing a spectacular fireball.

This, to our minds, is a GREAT illustration of the Financial Meltdown. The bucket is the American economy. The soapy water is the (actual) money supply. In 2001, Alan Greenspan (Jamie Hyneman, in the walrus moustache and beret) began pumping money(here, methane) into an economy that, already in recession was also reeling from the collapse of the dotcom bubble, the tech bubble, and the related NASDAQ bubble. Oh and this collapse too.

Obligingly, the economy foamed up, up, up. For reasons best known to bankers and policymakers, most of the money-methane went first into the housing market, then later began to spill out into the finacial services markets, then finally began to leak into consumer goods other than housing, notably gasoline (here the model strays from reality, it leaks not).

Greenspan kept this up right until the end of his last term, in January 2006, when Ben Bernanke was appointed to replace him.  Bernanke (here Adam Savage) apparently took one look at what was happening, took out his lighter (monetary policy) and ignited the column of suds (stopped inflating), which, after a delay (2 years) caused a spectacular, flaming collapse, with accompanying disappearance and extinguishment of nearly all of the money.

Now, of course, it is time to play the video again, this time with with Bernanke pumping in money and probably lighting it too, in short order, just like Friedrich Von Hayek explained to the dunces on Meet The Press many years ago.

(OK it gets a little fuzzy here, just watch the video;)

Mythbusters Methane Foam

06
Jan

Peter Schiff Was Right

I’ve been directing people toward Peter Schiff’s criticism of US monetary policy for a long time and many people have poo-pooed me for listening to a Chicken Little such as Schiff. Well, if you won’t believe me or Peter, maybe you’ll listen to a hot blonde.

29
Dec

UAW-ism, or Why Federally-Backed Unions Are Destroying Detroit, and Us All

NOTE: No Oiler In This Diagram
NOTE: I Don’t See An  Oiler In This Diagram

Lew Rockwell had a great post this morning (with video goodness!) about “Little Three” union officials slacking off and engaging in personal “business” (shopping, beer-buying) while on the clock. I wrote and related this story to Lew;

Hi Lew,

It is amazing to see a news organization, particularly one in a “union town” covering this story, since such abuses are longstanding and widespread. But there is nothing unique about what the two union reps in the story are accused of.

In 1993 - 1994, I was the safety and health manager of a large construction project ($280M) at a major oil refinery. Being a union plant, of course all of the contractors on the project were forced to hire union “labor” to do all tasks, including some that in a free market would not be done.

Before any work could commence, the contractors on the project had to sign a “project labor agreement”, or PLA, which set forth staffing requirements, work rules, and union jurisdiction. The number of unions involved in the endeavor was mind-boggling. We had carpenters, cement finishers, dockbuilders, electricians, laborers, millwrights, pipefitters, plumbers, teamsters, operating engineers, and one or two others I am sure I am forgetting.

Because the refinery was under a state-imposed environmental compliance deadline for completion, the project ran 2 12-hour shifts per day, 7 days per week to try to meet the deadline. Such mandates and deadlines always present tremendous opportunities for graft. I’ll spare you the details, except at one point the civil contractor was paying a “pipefitter” to make sandwiches for sale to the project personnel, which at 300 - plus workers undoubtedly handsomely enhanced his own personal profit.

Some of the unions even had subgroups, such as one class of operating engineers that ran pumps and generators up to a certain size, others that operated smaller loaders and excavators, another class of operators that ran larger excavators, and finally the “top” class of operating engineers, the crane operators.

The operating engineers’ contract at the time required that all equipment over a certain (arbitrary, low) horsepower be staffed by an operating engineer and an oiler, whether the maintenance regime for the equipment required continuous hand-oiling or not. I will leave it to you to ponder whether modern machinery made in the last 50 years would have such an intense need for maintenance.

Because this requirement undoubtedly caused many objections, an alternate “compliance” method was for the contractor to pay the operating engineer an extra hour for “grease time” (how apt), ostensibly to compensate the operating engineer for coming in an hour early to maintain and prepare his equipment for the start of the shift.

Except, remember, the project operated on 2 12-hour shifts, 7 days per week, which meant that during “grease time” the equipment was still being used by the operator on the previous shift. So we in essence have two operating engineers being paid to work 13 hours per day each, for a total of 26 hours of labor pay per qualifying machine per day.

It gets better. In the construction trades, the union representative is paid a little more than the highest-paid worker on the project. Because of the size of the crew, the project labor agreement mandated that the operating engineers have two project-paid union representatives, a “shop steward”, and a “master mechanic”, who were each paid “grease time’ also.

I’m not entirely sure what the duties of a “shop steward” are, but since the project already had 3 or 4 actual full-time mechanics, the “master mechanic” had few if any remaining visible duties. If you were lucky, you could get hold of him over the project radio system 3 to 4 hours per day at best. Allegedly one would have had better luck looking for him on the golf course most days, weather permitting. Yet because his position was mandated by the PLA, he was being paid 26 hours per day, 7 days per week.

After about 6-8 months of this, it became so embarrassing that the union itself actually put a stop to it, assigning a second-shift “master mechanic”, an extremely able, competent, and hard-working operating engineer who performed all of his union “duties” and operated equipment as well. But this was only one small instance of union abuse on the project.

Somewhere in this sorry tale I should mention that the construction ‘managers’ for the project were Kellogg, Brown, and Root (nee Brown and Root Braun), a particularly ill-named group of losers and no-accounts who actually impeded safety and progress on the project during their tenure.

Please use my alias if you print this.

UPDATE: This was funny.

10
Dec

If Massive Government Spending Is So Important, Why Didn’t They Do It Sooner?

Katrina VanDenHuevel displays a popular ignorance of economics in this piece, in which she enthusiastically endorses Future President Obama’s proposal to create hundreds of billions of dollars out of nothing (in addition to the trillions in bailouts which US taxpayers have already been obligated to fund) for “infrastructure” spending (refer to our previous piece for the relevant definition).

Am I being petty when I ask why, if government spending on infrastructure is SO important, we haven’t done this before now? Even Ron Paul pointed out in the debates our crumbling roads and bridges as a higher use of the trillions being blown on wars abroad, for instance.

So why wasn’t this already done, particularly in the wake of such catastrophic infrastructure failures as the levies in New Orleans, and the I-34 bridge in Minneapolis? Do the billions of dollars lately wasted on the Big Dig, or being lavished on a tiny handful of residents of Manhattan’s East Side, 1, 2 qualify, and count toward some ideal level of infrastructure spending?  WTF is going on here?

I suspect that a big reason Bush and his co-conspirators “ignored” the need for an “adequate” level of infrastructure spending in this country in favor of invading the world relates to an old, old engineering joke;

Q: What’s the difference between mechanical engineers and civil engineers?

A: Mechanical engineers build weapons, civil engineers build targets.