Archive for the 'autarky' Category

14
Feb

The Next Bubble - Government Bonds

Which One Goes Next?

Which One Goes Next?

There seem to be a couple of likely candidates for the next bubble to pop, among them commercial real estate, with its heavy dependence on (collapsing) retail sales, and government bonds, which are are intimately tied to (ballooning)  government infrastructure spending.

The people I have talked to about commercial real estate (owners / investors) seem split on whether / when the commercial realty bubble will pop, or whether it will be a slow outgas followed by gradual recovery.

In contrast, no one  that I have heard or conversed with is optimistic about government bonds. Talking to a municipal bond trader the other day, I remarked ” the infrastructure spending in the proposed stimulus has got to be good news for your business, right?” He replied to the effect that no, most people in the bond business are very concerned that there is in actuality a growing bubble in government debt, which the stimulus bill has every chance of making much worse.

So, how do you short government bonds again?

(Image from philadelphia reflections, a monetarist’s blog, unfortunately)

29
Dec

UAW-ism, or Why Federally-Backed Unions Are Destroying Detroit, and Us All

NOTE: No Oiler In This Diagram
NOTE: I Don’t See An  Oiler In This Diagram

Lew Rockwell had a great post this morning (with video goodness!) about “Little Three” union officials slacking off and engaging in personal “business” (shopping, beer-buying) while on the clock. I wrote and related this story to Lew;

Hi Lew,

It is amazing to see a news organization, particularly one in a “union town” covering this story, since such abuses are longstanding and widespread. But there is nothing unique about what the two union reps in the story are accused of.

In 1993 - 1994, I was the safety and health manager of a large construction project ($280M) at a major oil refinery. Being a union plant, of course all of the contractors on the project were forced to hire union “labor” to do all tasks, including some that in a free market would not be done.

Before any work could commence, the contractors on the project had to sign a “project labor agreement”, or PLA, which set forth staffing requirements, work rules, and union jurisdiction. The number of unions involved in the endeavor was mind-boggling. We had carpenters, cement finishers, dockbuilders, electricians, laborers, millwrights, pipefitters, plumbers, teamsters, operating engineers, and one or two others I am sure I am forgetting.

Because the refinery was under a state-imposed environmental compliance deadline for completion, the project ran 2 12-hour shifts per day, 7 days per week to try to meet the deadline. Such mandates and deadlines always present tremendous opportunities for graft. I’ll spare you the details, except at one point the civil contractor was paying a “pipefitter” to make sandwiches for sale to the project personnel, which at 300 - plus workers undoubtedly handsomely enhanced his own personal profit.

Some of the unions even had subgroups, such as one class of operating engineers that ran pumps and generators up to a certain size, others that operated smaller loaders and excavators, another class of operators that ran larger excavators, and finally the “top” class of operating engineers, the crane operators.

The operating engineers’ contract at the time required that all equipment over a certain (arbitrary, low) horsepower be staffed by an operating engineer and an oiler, whether the maintenance regime for the equipment required continuous hand-oiling or not. I will leave it to you to ponder whether modern machinery made in the last 50 years would have such an intense need for maintenance.

Because this requirement undoubtedly caused many objections, an alternate “compliance” method was for the contractor to pay the operating engineer an extra hour for “grease time” (how apt), ostensibly to compensate the operating engineer for coming in an hour early to maintain and prepare his equipment for the start of the shift.

Except, remember, the project operated on 2 12-hour shifts, 7 days per week, which meant that during “grease time” the equipment was still being used by the operator on the previous shift. So we in essence have two operating engineers being paid to work 13 hours per day each, for a total of 26 hours of labor pay per qualifying machine per day.

It gets better. In the construction trades, the union representative is paid a little more than the highest-paid worker on the project. Because of the size of the crew, the project labor agreement mandated that the operating engineers have two project-paid union representatives, a “shop steward”, and a “master mechanic”, who were each paid “grease time’ also.

I’m not entirely sure what the duties of a “shop steward” are, but since the project already had 3 or 4 actual full-time mechanics, the “master mechanic” had few if any remaining visible duties. If you were lucky, you could get hold of him over the project radio system 3 to 4 hours per day at best. Allegedly one would have had better luck looking for him on the golf course most days, weather permitting. Yet because his position was mandated by the PLA, he was being paid 26 hours per day, 7 days per week.

After about 6-8 months of this, it became so embarrassing that the union itself actually put a stop to it, assigning a second-shift “master mechanic”, an extremely able, competent, and hard-working operating engineer who performed all of his union “duties” and operated equipment as well. But this was only one small instance of union abuse on the project.

Somewhere in this sorry tale I should mention that the construction ‘managers’ for the project were Kellogg, Brown, and Root (nee Brown and Root Braun), a particularly ill-named group of losers and no-accounts who actually impeded safety and progress on the project during their tenure.

Please use my alias if you print this.

UPDATE: This was funny.

27
Nov

A Reich Lexicon, Or How A Clock Right Twice A Day Can Still Be Massively Broken

The Broken Clock Corrollary

The Broken Clock Corrollary

We last discussed the learned Professor Reich with regard to his (correct) observation that the failed companies on Wall Street, Detroit, etc. should be allowed to go bust rather than be bailed out, which struck us as an eminently sensible idea, particularly coming from the hard-socialist former labor secretary.

This morning I awoke to his mellifluous, yet vaguely elfin voice giving the second half of what is now apparently a one-two punch - his Pinko ideas of what the government should instead do with the bailout money;

He proposes to have Obama spend $600 Billion dollars for his ‘recovery’, ’stimulus’, or ‘infrastructure’ plan (he uses all three labels).

First, with regard to the size of his plan - where do these fascists and socialists get these figures -  focus groups?

Does he think its comparatively responsible (or simply cute) to propose to spend $100 billion less than Hank Paulson demanded of money that simply doesn’t exist?

We have shown elsewhere that the $700 billion number is a fabrication, that the total we are all on the hook for is over $7 TRILLION. So this already is enough to make one want to burn him in effigy. if for no other reason than the fact that he is reinforcing a stereotype of little people as being ‘cute’.

Then he launched into a description of what he, if appointed emperor of the economy, would do to save us all from ourselves. Here is a helpful lexicon of Robert Reich, the study of which will hopefully be more illuminating then actually listening to his pleasantly-presented, slick socialist program; (Reichspeak = Actual meaning);

Infrastructure = pork for blue states

Bridges To Nowhere = pork for red states

Infrastructure spending = payoffs to trade unions and union contractors

Pork-barrel spending = payoffs to non-union contractors

Investing = payoffs to politically-connected interests

Investment = massive increases in government indebtedness

Green Technologies = payoffs to connected interests in the name of energy autarky (see Nazi Germany)

Starving Wall Street of money = Saving

Services = welfare

Stimulus = see Infrastructure

Lower future deficits = more spending now

Welfare for rich people = Tax cuts

Rebates = payoffs to China

Capital Budgets = pork for Federal and state favored interests

Demand = discredited economic theory of aggregate demand

05
Aug

Are Obama And McCain Economic Illiterates?

What Obama And McCain See When They Look At Us

What Obama And McCain See When They Look At Us

…Or are they just being cynical?

Yesterday, McCain repeated, ad nauseum his moronic new mantra for energy autarky, “Drill Here, Drill Now!” all over the airwaves, from safe inside the factory belonging to a top supporter in Fairless Hills, PA. Obama’s Great Factory Adventure Of The Day was to an auto plant in Lansing, Michigan, where, while no longer mouthing complete opposition to more drilling, annonced a plan to reinstate a windfall profits tax on oil companies, to be re-distributed to “American Families”at $1000 each, and a $4 BILLION subsidy to US automakers for the purpose of developing ‘plug-in hybrid’ cars, whatever that means. Both of these proposals, if ever enacted, will have exactly the opposite effect, as Harry Browne would have been able to tell them.

Let’s take more drilling, whether offshore, on Federal lands, etc. Never mind that any truly free-market actor, individual, partnership, or company should be free to homestead and drill any unused property subject to penalties for trespass on any other property, and cleaning up the mess before abandoning it. If due to congressional subsidies (you didn’t think they would just remove restrictions and let the oil companies do the rest, did you?) a modest increase in domestic production occurs, the principal effect would be to lower demand for oil coming from abroad, depressing the price and causing a net INCREASE in imports!

Well then, how about the windfall profits tax? Well, this would only affect profits earned within the LEGAL (but not ACTUAL) jurisdiction of Congress, which would tend to depress production, where class? That’s right, the good old USA - good for you!

OK, but ‘plug-in’ hybrids are good, right? And union jobs in Michigan are important, right? Well, here I am afraid one of these abominations will have its intended REAL effect - $4 BILLION dollars funneled to US Auto companies for the development of ‘plug-in’ hybrids (why, one might ask, aren’t the manufacturers investing in this technology already, one might ask) will go directly toward retaining a surplus of union employees by said plants. Or, the automakers might just sweep the extra money onto their balance sheets, and screw the union workers, whatever.

Look, these are two smart men (Obama is manifestly smarter than McCain, makes no difference here).So there can only be one reason they are calling for such ridiculous, moronic programs that will have the exact inverse of the stated intended effect. The reason they come out with these insane public announcements is that they both sincerely believe that the American electorate, every single last one of us, are grasping idiots.

Remind me why I should vote for either one of these clowns again?

(Image from smashed frog)




 

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